NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Date
Nov 2
Distance
312 Laps

RACE RECAP

Kyle Larson captured his second NASCAR Cup Series championship in one of the most dramatic finishes in the sport's history, overcoming two flat tires and a 29th-place restart with 86 laps remaining to finish third at Phoenix Raceway -- the highest among the Championship 4 drivers. Ryan Blaney won the race itself, crossing the line ahead of Brad Keselowski, but the championship belonged to Larson after crew chief Cliff Daniels made two brilliant strategic calls that reversed the entire trajectory of the title fight.

Denny Hamlin appeared to have the championship locked up, leading a commanding 208 of 319 laps and controlling the race from the front. But with two laps remaining in regulation, William Byron's No. 24 Chevrolet slammed the Turn 3 wall with a flat tire, bringing out the caution that sent the race to overtime. Daniels called for just two right-side tires on Larson's No. 5 Chevrolet -- the second consecutive two-tire call of the late going -- vaulting Larson to fifth for the overtime restart. Hamlin, who had pitted from the lead and taken four fresh tires, lined up 10th, five spots behind his championship rival.

Larson held third through the overtime laps while Hamlin could only recover to sixth, and the championship swung on that single pit-strategy decision. Hamlin's 208 laps led and dominant speed were rendered moot by a caution he did not cause and a strategy gamble he could not overcome. Chase Briscoe's title hopes were undone by multiple flat tires throughout the race, finishing 18th, while Byron ended up 33rd after his wall contact. Larson became the 15th champion for team owner Rick Hendrick and joined an elite club of multi-time Cup Series champions.

BY THE NUMBERS

16
Lead Changes
6
Leaders
9/65
Cautions / Laps
2,774
Green Flag Passes
.097
Margin of Victory
97.711
Avg MPH
3:15:53
Race Time
20.8%
Under Caution
24.7
Avg Green Run (Laps)
Stage Winners
S1William Byron
S2Denny Hamlin
Lap Leaders
#11Hamlin208laps
#24Byron52laps
#9Elliott30laps
#12Blaney20laps
#6Keselowski6laps
#19Briscoe3laps
Caution Breakdown
1L62โ€“698LStage 1 ConclusionLD #41
2L73โ€“797L#42, 34 Incident BackstretchLD #35
3L107โ€“1159L#88 Spin FrontstretchLD #71
4L150โ€“1556L#16 Incident Turn 3LD #10
5L184โ€“19310L#10 Incident Turn 2LD #44
6L221โ€“2266L#77 Incident Turn 4LD #19
7L260โ€“2667L#2 Incident Turn 3LD #48
8L280โ€“2845L#44 Incident Turn 3LD #3
9L311โ€“3177L#24 Incident Turn 4LD #4

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01Kyle Larson won the championship without leading a single lap at Phoenix, proving that crew chief strategy and track position on restarts can outweigh raw speed -- Cliff Daniels' two-tire call was the most consequential fantasy-relevant pit decision of the season.
02Denny Hamlin led 208 laps and dominated the race but finished sixth and lost the title after a late caution erased his advantage -- the ultimate cautionary tale about laps-led upside not guaranteeing championship-round fantasy returns.
03William Byron's flat tire with two laps remaining caused the caution that changed the championship outcome, and he finished 33rd -- his crash was the single most impactful non-winner event of the entire 2025 season for fantasy standings.
04Ryan Blaney won the race from outside the Championship 4, earning his first Phoenix victory in 20 starts -- non-contenders with nothing to lose can be premium fantasy value in the championship race.
05Chase Briscoe battled flat tires all day and finished 18th, making him the lowest-finishing Championship 4 driver -- his struggles highlight how tire wear at Phoenix can torpedo even the best-prepared teams in the season finale.

VALUE PICKS

9.0
pts/$
Car #51
Justin Haley$3
P14
4.86
pts/$
Car #34
Michael McDowell$7
P8
4.80
pts/$
Car #47
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$5
P17
4.67
pts/$
Car #11
Denny Hamlin$16
P6S1:P3S2:P1Led:208FL
4.64
pts/$
Car #12
Ryan Blaney$14
P1S1:P2S2:P2Led:20

BUSTS

0.4
pts/$
Car #23
Bubba Wallace$11
P37
1.25
pts/$
Car #45
Tyler Reddick$12
P26
1.40
pts/$
Car #2
Austin Cindric$10
P34S1:P4
2.02
pts/$
Car #19
Chase Briscoe$14
P18S1:P10S2:P7Led:3
2.08
pts/$
Car #24
William Byron$15
P33S1:P1S2:P3Led:52

PERFECT LINEUP

Optimal 5-driver roster for this race

Salary
$50/50
Avg Finish
P8
Total Points
374.25
GroupDriverSalaryFinishPts
A
Car #12
Ryan Blaney
$141
130.00
2 ร— 65.00
B
Car #6
Brad Keselowski
$102
72.80
1.75 ร— 41.60
C
Car #11
Denny Hamlin
$166
113.70
1.5 ร— 75.80
D
Car #51
Justin Haley
$514
33.75
1.25 ร— 27.00
E
Car #47
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
$517
24.00
1 ร— 24.00
โ˜… Fastest Lap of the Race (+1 pt)