Justin Allgaier leads both our ML model and AccuPredict projections at Kansas. Dash 4 Cash adds K motivation for Crews, Allgaier, Kvapil, and Creed. Full DK salary breakdown and FantasyJolt lineup for the Kansas Lottery 300.
Allgaier Tops the Blended Model at Kansas
Justin Allgaier enters the Kansas Lottery 300 as our #1 projection — the consensus pick across both our ML model and AccuPredict. The #7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet has a 116.15 YTD driver rating, the highest in the series, and a projected finish of 10.3. At $12,000 DK / $15 FJ, he's the premium anchor.
Austin Hill (#21, $8,200 DK / $12 FJ) and Brandon Jones (#20, $10,500 DK / $15 FJ) round out AccuPredict's top 3 with projected finishes of 10.7 and 10.9 respectively. Jones won here in 2025 and carries a 111.9 track driver rating — the highest among regulars.
William Byron (#88, $12,500 DK / $15 FJ) is the most expensive option as a Cup ringer, but both models rank him outside the top 3. AccuPredict has him 7th (12.74 projected finish). His Hendrick equipment is elite, but his O'Reilly track type form (1 race) limits the data.
Dash 4 Cash Factor
This is a Dash 4 Cash race with $100,000 on the line. Brent Crews (#19), Justin Allgaier (#7), Carson Kvapil (#1), and Sheldon Creed (#00) are eligible. Allgaier and Creed both project top 5 — the bonus money adds motivation to already strong picks.
DraftKings Value Plays
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | Proj Pts | AP Finish | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Smith | #8 | $8,000 | 39.9 | 11.3 | 4.99 |
| Sheldon Creed | #00 | $9,500 | 36.7 | 11.7 | 3.86 |
| Jesse Love | #2 | $8,500 | 35.6 | 11.0 | 4.19 |
| Cole Custer | #0 | $7,500 | 29.2 | 15.6 | 3.89 |
| William Sawalich | #18 | $7,800 | 30.2 | 13.8 | 3.87 |
Value = projected points per $1K DK salary
Salary Tier Breakdown
Premium ($13-$15 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | AP Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Byron | #88 | $12,500 | $15 | 39.9 | 12.7 |
| Justin Allgaier | #7 | $12,000 | $15 | 47.3 | 10.3 |
| Brandon Jones | #20 | $10,500 | $15 | 34.5 | 10.9 |
| Brent Crews | #19 | $10,000 | $14 | 27.2 | 17.9 |
| Sheldon Creed | #00 | $9,500 | $14 | 36.7 | 11.7 |
| Carson Kvapil | #1 | $9,200 | $14 | 32.3 | 14.3 |
Allgaier is the clear #1 play. Creed at $14 is the Dash 4 Cash value — projected 11.7 finish with bonus motivation. Crews ($14) projects P14 at 17.9 finish — too expensive for the projection. Byron at $15 is safe but not the top value.
Mid-Range ($10-$13 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | AP Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Mayer | #41 | $9,000 | $13 | 24.2 | 13.9 |
| Corey Day | #17 | $8,700 | $13 | 35.6 | 15.2 |
| Jesse Love | #2 | $8,500 | $13 | 35.6 | 11.0 |
| Taylor Gray | #54 | $8,400 | $12 | 28.2 | 14.2 |
| Austin Hill | #21 | $8,200 | $12 | 40.3 | 10.7 |
| Sammy Smith | #8 | $8,000 | $12 | 39.9 | 11.3 |
| William Sawalich | #18 | $7,800 | $11 | 30.2 | 13.8 |
| Harrison Burton | #24 | $7,700 | $11 | 31.3 | 15.7 |
| Cole Custer | #0 | $7,500 | $11 | 29.2 | 15.6 |
Austin Hill ($12) and Sammy Smith ($12) are the mid-range steals — both project top-5 finishes at one tier below max salary. Jesse Love at $13 projects an 11.0 finish. Sam Mayer at $13 is the fade — AccuPredict has him 9th but his 12.4 DK FPPG screams inconsistency.
Value ($8-$10 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | AP Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Retzlaff | #99 | $7,400 | $10 | 26.2 | 18.3 |
| Ryan Sieg | #39 | $7,200 | $10 | 25.2 | 15.8 |
| Rajah Caruth | #32 | $7,000 | $10 | 21.2 | 20.5 |
| Anthony Alfredo | #96 | $6,900 | $9 | 23.2 | 18.6 |
| Dean Thompson | #26 | $6,700 | $9 | 22.2 | 16.8 |
| Jeremy Clements | #51 | $6,600 | $9 | 15.0 | 22.5 |
| Jeb Burton | #27 | $6,500 | $8 | 20.0 | 20.6 |
| Brennan Poole | #44 | $6,300 | $8 | 18.0 | 23.1 |
Ryan Sieg at $10 projects a 15.8 finish — solid floor play. Dean Thompson ($9) at 16.8 projected finish is the sleeper.
Bargain ($3-$7 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | AP Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Sieg | #28 | $6,200 | $8 | 11.0 | 23.2 |
| Blaine Perkins | #31 | $5,900 | $7 | 7.0 | 26.6 |
| Patrick Staropoli | #48 | $6,100 | $7 | 14.0 | 23.3 |
| Austin Green | #87 | $6,000 | $7 | 9.0 | 24.1 |
| Ryan Ellis | #02 | $5,800 | $6 | 12.0 | 24.9 |
| Luke Baldwin | #5 | $5,700 | $6 | 8.0 | 24.3 |
| Josh Williams | #92 | $5,500 | $6 | 19.0 | 20.3 |
| Nick Leitz | #42 | $5,400 | $5 | 16.0 | 27.6 |
| Josh Bilicki | #07 | $5,300 | $5 | 17.0 | 23.1 |
| Lavar Scott | #45 | $5,200 | $5 | 12.0 | 23.1 |
| Mason Maggio | #91 | $5,100 | $4 | 10.0 | 23.6 |
| Joey Gase | #55 | $5,000 | $4 | 6.0 | 28.6 |
| Dawson Cram | #74 | $4,900 | $4 | 5.0 | 29.9 |
Josh Williams at $6 has a 20.3 projected finish — the bargain pick with the most upside.
Recommended FantasyJolt Lineup
| Group | Multiplier | Driver | Car | Salary | Proj Pts | Effective Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 2.0x | Justin Allgaier | #7 | $15 | 47.3 | 94.6 |
| B | 1.75x | Austin Hill | #21 | $12 | 40.3 | 70.5 |
| C | 1.5x | Sammy Smith | #8 | $12 | 39.9 | 59.9 |
| D | 1.25x | Jesse Love | #2 | $13 | 35.6 | 44.5 |
| E | 1.0x | — | — | — | — | — |
Total Salary: $52 / $50
Over by $2. Alternative lineup under cap:
| Group | Multiplier | Driver | Car | Salary | Proj Pts | Effective Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 2.0x | Justin Allgaier | #7 | $15 | 47.3 | 94.6 |
| B | 1.75x | Sammy Smith | #8 | $12 | 39.9 | 69.8 |
| C | 1.5x | Sheldon Creed | #00 | $14 | 36.7 | 55.1 |
| D | 1.25x | Dean Thompson | #26 | $9 | 22.2 | 27.8 |
| E | 1.0x | — | — | $0 | — | — |
Total Salary: $50 / $50 | Total Effective Points: 247.3
Allgaier in the A-slot is the consensus #1 pick. Sammy Smith's 11.3 projected finish at $12 makes him the B-slot value. Creed gets the Dash 4 Cash bump in C. Thompson fills D as a mid-pack floor play at $9.
Race Format
The Kansas Lottery 300 runs 200 laps (300 miles) at the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway. Green flag Saturday at 5 p.m. ET on The CW.