The NASCAR All-Star Race comes to Dover for the first time in its 42-year history. NASCAR has applied resin around the concrete oval to encourage side-by-side racing, and the 350-lap format unfolds across three segments (75/75/200) with field inversion and the Mechanix Wear Pit Crew Challenge. Our projections rank Denny Hamlin No. 1 — he's the back-to-back winner of the last two Cup Dover points races.
Sunday's NASCAR All-Star Race writes a new chapter into Dover Motor Speedway's history: for the first time in the 42-year run of the $1 million-to-win exhibition, the Monster Mile hosts the event. NASCAR has applied resin around the entire 1-mile concrete oval to increase grip and encourage side-by-side racing — an aggressive surface adjustment that signals exactly how much the sanctioning body wants this race to look different from the typical Dover green-flag freight train.
Our projections rank Denny Hamlin No. 1 in a 19-driver locked-in field that will be filled out by the All-Star Open transfers and the Fan Vote winner. Hamlin won the last two Cup points races at Dover — back-to-back wins in 2024 and 2025 — and brings an average finish of P2.3 across his last three starts at the track. He's the chalk for a reason.
Below him: Chase Elliott (No. 2), Tyler Reddick (No. 3), and Ryan Blaney (No. 4). The biggest disagreement between our projections and the consensus pricing is Chris Buescher at $10 — ranked No. 5 in our model and priced two tiers below the top.
Race Details
| Race | NASCAR All-Star Race (Exhibition, non-points) |
| Track | Dover Motor Speedway (1.0-mile concrete oval) |
| Date | Sunday, May 17, 2026 — 1:00 PM ET |
| TV / Radio | FS1 / PRN / SiriusXM |
| Distance | 350 laps / 350 miles (Three segments: 75 / 75 / 200) |
| Field | 23 cars (19 locked-in + Open transfers + Fan Vote) |
| Prize | $1 million to the winner |
Storylines
The format is unlike any Cup race of the season. Three segments — 75 + 75 + 200 laps. After the first 75-lap sprint, the top 26 finishers are inverted to start Segment 2 (so whoever wins Segment 1 starts 26th for the restart). Only 26 drivers compete in the final 200-lap sprint to the $1M. That field inversion is designed specifically to break the dirty-air advantage and force the top cars to actually race their way back to the front.
The Mechanix Wear Pit Crew Challenge replaces traditional qualifying. During Saturday's pre-race format, each pit crew performs a single four-tire, no-fuel stop. The fastest crew without a penalty earns a $100,000 cash prize, and the results determine pit-stall selection order for Sunday. Pit stall #1 at Dover is the difference between a fluid in-and-out and getting trapped behind another team's outbox.
Resin treatment on the entire concrete oval. NASCAR isn't waiting to see how Cup tires react to bare Dover concrete — the entire track gets a grip-enhancing resin coating. Whether that produces real side-by-side passing or just shifts the racing line is the technical question of the weekend.
Denny Hamlin's Dover dominance. Back-to-back Cup wins at Dover in 2024 and 2025, average finish of P2.3 across the last three Cup races at the track, and Joe Gibbs Racing's setup data here is the deepest in the garage. He's the heaviest favorite our projections have flagged in any race of 2026.
Defending All-Star winner Christopher Bell is locked in. Bell won the 2025 All-Star at North Wilkesboro; he heads into 2026 looking to be the first back-to-back All-Star winner since Kyle Busch (2017-2018). He's also running Friday's Truck race as the No. 1-ranked driver in our projections there — an unusual triple-duty weekend.
Reigning Cup champion Kyle Larson is locked in. The 2025 Cup champion enters the All-Star with a points lead in 2026 and a track he hasn't always conquered — concrete short ovals haven't been his 2026 sweet spot. Our projections rank him No. 6, which is meaningfully below his pricing tier.
Connor Zilisch makes his Cup Dover debut. The 19-year-old runs the Trackhouse No. 88. He's won the O'Reilly Series race at Dover in both 2024 and 2025; the Cup chassis is different but the track is the same. Our projections rank him No. 21 — conservative, with tournament leverage if he finds the high line on a long run.
The All-Star Village. Two-acre fan zone, Miles Beach returns, and the world's largest rubber duck (a 61-foot inflatable) sits in the infield for the weekend. The atmosphere will be unlike any other Dover event.
Top Plays
Denny Hamlin (#11, $13 FJ / $11,000 DK / $14,000 FD) — Ranked No. 1. Back-to-back Dover Cup winner, P2.3 average finish across his last three Dover starts. The heaviest favorite our projections have flagged in any race of 2026. Top-tier salary and our top projection — lock-in.
Kyle Larson (#5, $13 FJ / $10,500 DK / $13,500 FD) — Ranked No. 6. Same top tier as Hamlin, but the projection disagrees. Reigning Cup champion, but concrete short ovals haven't been his 2026 sweet spot. The DK/FD market has him priced as a co-favorite; our model is more cautious. Fade-the-chalk candidate.
Chase Elliott (#9, $13 FJ / $10,000 DK / $13,000 FD) — Ranked No. 2. Hendrick Motorsports at the top tier with our No. 2 projection — the leverage play vs. Larson at the same price. Three straight top-10s coming in. Three career Dover top-5s.
Tyler Reddick (#45, $12 FJ / $9,500 DK / $11,500 FD) — Ranked No. 3. 23XI Racing. Strong concrete-oval profile (Phoenix, Bristol-concrete) and the season's most-consistent top-5 driver.
Ryan Blaney (#12, $12 FJ / $10,200 DK / $12,500 FD) — Ranked No. 4. Team Penske Ford. Penske's Dover prep is historically strong and Blaney has finished top-10 in all 4 of his last Dover Cup starts.
Value Plays
Chris Buescher (#17, $10 FJ / $7,800 DK / $8,500 FD) — Ranked No. 5. The slate's best value. RFK Ford. Quietly a top-15 driver every race of 2026; the patient All-Star format suits his approach.
Ryan Preece (#60, $8 FJ / $7,100 DK / $6,800 FD) — Ranked No. 8. RFK Ford. Strong Dover résumé from his O'Reilly years. $8 for a top-10 projection is the slate's best dollars-per-point ratio.
Brad Keselowski (#6, $9 FJ / $7,500 DK / $7,500 FD) — Ranked No. 9. RFK Ford. Three top-5s coming in from the past five Cup races. Track history at Dover is strong.
Drivers Historically Strong at Dover
The Monster Mile's modern era has been dominated by Jimmie Johnson (11 wins, all-time record) and Kyle Busch (4 wins, the active leader). Among active drivers in this field:
- Denny Hamlin — back-to-back winner (2024, 2025)
- Kyle Busch — 4 wins (active leader)
- Martin Truex Jr. — 4 wins (retired but a model reference)
- Chase Elliott — 2 wins
- Alex Bowman — 1 win, part of the 2021 Hendrick 1-2-3-4
- Kyle Larson — historically uneven at Dover
Watch For
Our top 5 ranked drivers: Hamlin > Elliott > Reddick > Blaney > Buescher. The biggest disagreement between our projections and the consensus market:
- Hamlin ($13) — top-tier priced, but the Dover-specific data argues he's still underpriced
- Larson ($13) — model fade vs. market chalk; concrete-short hasn't been his strength in 2026
- Buescher ($10) — the slate's cleanest leverage pick
For tournament lineups: pay up for Hamlin/Elliott/Reddick, anchor a true value at Buescher or Preece, and roll the dice on Zilisch as the rookie-spike pivot. For cash games: take the top three projected drivers and worry about the rest later. Watch for Zilisch on the long runs if the resin coating gives the high line real grip — his O'Reilly Dover wins were both built on running where no one else could.