Kyle Larson tops our v4 projection model at Kansas, but Joey Logano at P2 is the surprise — his 9.4 avg running position masks a 20% DNF rate. Kyle Busch at $9 FJ remains the value play. Full DK, FanDuel, and FantasyJolt breakdown.
Larson Leads the Model — Logano Is the Value Surprise
Kyle Larson tops our v4 projection model at 53.6 FJ points with the best intermediate track features in the field. The No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet runs 5.3 average position, leads 42 laps per race at intermediates recently, and starts from P4. At $10,500 DK / $14,000 FD / $14 FJ, he's the premium anchor.
Joey Logano at P2 is the model's biggest divergence from consensus. His 9.4 average running position is elite — he runs near the front consistently — but a 20% DNF rate in last 5 drags his finish average to 17.8. The model sees past the bad luck to the underlying speed. At $8,700 DK / $8,000 FD / $12 FJ, he's significantly cheaper than the other top-5 projections.
Denny Hamlin projects P3 with 48.8 FJ points — the highest raw points in the field thanks to 88 projected laps led. He's the DraftKings favorite at $11,000 and Vegas' top pick at +500. At $15 FJ salary, he's expensive but justified by his 3.3 average running position and 71 laps led per intermediate race recently.
The Value Play: Kyle Busch (#8) projects P4 at just $7,300 DK / $6,500 FD / $9 FJ salary. His career intermediate average (13.0 finish over 157 races) is elite, though recent form has slipped to 15.8 avg finish with RCR. At $9, you're getting projected top-5 production for mid-tier price — the best value on the board.
Chase Elliott rounds out the top 5 at P5 with 44.5 FJ points. His $9,000 DK / $10,000 FD / $12 FJ salary makes him a strong mid-range anchor.
DraftKings Value Plays
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | Proj Pts | Proj Finish | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | #8 | $7,300 | 41.3 | P4 | 5.66 |
| Brad Keselowski | #6 | $7,900 | 40.3 | P6 | 5.10 |
| Joey Logano | #22 | $8,700 | 47.3 | P2 | 5.44 |
| Daniel Suarez | #7 | $6,700 | 31.0 | P14 | 4.63 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | #16 | $6,100 | 29.9 | P16 | 4.90 |
Value = projected points per $1K DK salary
FanDuel Value Plays
| Driver | Car | FD Salary | Proj Pts | Proj Finish | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | #8 | $6,500 | 41.3 | P4 | 6.35 |
| Joey Logano | #22 | $8,000 | 47.3 | P2 | 5.91 |
| Austin Dillon | #3 | $3,200 | 17.8 | P26 | 5.56 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | #16 | $4,800 | 29.9 | P16 | 6.23 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | #47 | $3,800 | 26.9 | P17 | 7.08 |
Value = projected points per $1K FD salary
FanDuel's pricing creates different value pockets. Shane van Gisbergen at $3,500 FD (vs. $6,400 DK) is a massive FD discount. Ricky Stenhouse Jr at $3,800 FD leads FD value with 7.08 pts/$1K.
Salary Tier Breakdown
Premium ($13-$15 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FD Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | Proj Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | #11 | $11,000 | $13,500 | $15 | 48.8 | P3 |
| Christopher Bell | #20 | $10,700 | $13,000 | $15 | 42.0 | P7 |
| Kyle Larson | #5 | $10,500 | $14,000 | $14 | 53.6 | P1 |
| Ryan Blaney | #12 | $10,200 | $12,000 | $14 | 37.4 | P11 |
| William Byron | #24 | $10,000 | $11,500 | $13 | 33.7 | P15 |
| Chase Briscoe | #19 | $9,800 | $11,000 | $13 | 38.7 | P9 |
| Tyler Reddick | #45 | $9,500 | $12,500 | $13 | 39.2 | P10 |
Larson is the clear top play. Bell at $15 projects P7 — his speed is elite (7.9 avg running position) but negative momentum (-3.1) and modest closing strength hold him back. He's the second-favorite in Vegas odds behind Hamlin, so P7 may be too conservative. Byron at $13 projects P15 — a fade at premium price.
Mid-Range ($10-$12 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FD Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | Proj Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Gibbs | #54 | $9,200 | $10,500 | $12 | 23.8 | P21 |
| Chase Elliott | #9 | $9,000 | $10,000 | $12 | 44.5 | P5 |
| Joey Logano | #22 | $8,700 | $8,000 | $12 | 47.3 | P2 |
| Bubba Wallace | #23 | $8,500 | $9,000 | $11 | 26.3 | P19 |
| Chris Buescher | #17 | $8,300 | $8,500 | $11 | 34.7 | P12 |
| Ross Chastain | #1 | $8,100 | $7,800 | $11 | 31.6 | P13 |
| Brad Keselowski | #6 | $7,900 | $7,500 | $10 | 40.3 | P6 |
| Carson Hocevar | #77 | $7,700 | $9,500 | $10 | 25.1 | P20 |
| Alex Bowman | #48 | $7,600 | $8,200 | $10 | 37.6 | P8 |
Logano ($12) and Elliott ($12) are the mid-range steals — both project top 5. Keselowski at $10 projects P6. Gibbs ($12) is the fade — P21 projection at a premium mid-range price.
Value ($6-$9 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FD Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | Proj Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | #8 | $7,300 | $6,500 | $9 | 41.3 | P4 |
| Ryan Preece | #60 | $7,500 | $7,200 | $9 | 22.8 | P22 |
| Austin Cindric | #2 | $7,200 | $7,000 | $9 | 21.3 | P23 |
| Josh Berry | #21 | $7,000 | $6,200 | $8 | 18.9 | P25 |
| Connor Zilisch | #88 | $6,800 | $5,000 | $8 | 18.3 | P24 |
| Corey Heim | #67 | $6,900 | $6,800 | $8 | 11.0 | P32 |
| Erik Jones | #43 | $6,600 | $5,500 | $7 | 25.3 | P18 |
| Daniel Suarez | #7 | $6,700 | $6,000 | $7 | 31.0 | P14 |
| Zane Smith | #38 | $6,500 | $5,800 | $7 | 16.7 | P27 |
Busch ($9) remains the top value play. Suarez at $7 projects P14 — a solid floor play.
Bargain ($3-$6 FJ)
| Driver | Car | DK Salary | FD Salary | FJ Salary | Proj Pts | Proj Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane van Gisbergen | #97 | $6,400 | $3,500 | $6 | 14.2 | P29 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | #16 | $6,100 | $4,800 | $6 | 29.9 | P16 |
| Michael McDowell | #71 | $6,200 | $5,200 | $6 | 13.0 | P30 |
| John H. Nemechek | #42 | $6,000 | $4,200 | $5 | 15.6 | P28 |
| Austin Dillon | #3 | $5,700 | $3,200 | $5 | 17.8 | P26 |
| Todd Gilliland | #34 | $5,800 | $4,500 | $5 | 9.3 | P33 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | #47 | $5,600 | $3,800 | $4 | 26.9 | P17 |
| Noah Gragson | #4 | $5,400 | $4,000 | $4 | 8.2 | P34 |
| Riley Herbst | #35 | $5,200 | $3,000 | $4 | 12.0 | P31 |
| Cole Custer | #41 | $5,100 | $2,000 | $3 | 6.9 | P35 |
| Ty Dillon | #10 | $5,000 | $2,500 | $3 | 4.7 | P37 |
| Cody Ware | #51 | $4,800 | $2,000 | $3 | 5.7 | P36 |
A.J. Allmendinger at $6 projects P16 with 29.9 points — the bargain steal. Stenhouse Jr at $4 projects P17 with 26.9 points. On FanDuel, SVG at $3,500 and Austin Dillon at $3,200 are near-minimum plays with upside.
Recommended FantasyJolt Lineup
| Group | Multiplier | Driver | Car | Salary | Proj Pts | Effective Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 2.0x | Kyle Larson | #5 | $14 | 53.6 | 107.2 |
| B | 1.75x | Joey Logano | #22 | $12 | 47.3 | 82.8 |
| C | 1.5x | Kyle Busch | #8 | $9 | 41.3 | 62.0 |
| D | 1.25x | Brad Keselowski | #6 | $10 | 40.3 | 50.4 |
| E | 1.0x | A.J. Allmendinger | #16 | $6 | 29.9 | 29.9 |
Total Salary: $51 / $50
Over by $1. Alternative: swap Keselowski ($10) for Allmendinger ($6) in D, and move Suarez ($7) to E:
| Group | Multiplier | Driver | Car | Salary | Proj Pts | Effective Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 2.0x | Kyle Larson | #5 | $14 | 53.6 | 107.2 |
| B | 1.75x | Joey Logano | #22 | $12 | 47.3 | 82.8 |
| C | 1.5x | Kyle Busch | #8 | $9 | 41.3 | 62.0 |
| D | 1.25x | A.J. Allmendinger | #16 | $6 | 29.9 | 37.4 |
| E | 1.0x | Daniel Suarez | #7 | $7 | 31.0 | 31.0 |
Total Salary: $48 / $50 | Total Effective Points: 320.4
Larson in the A-slot for maximum multiplier leverage. Logano's elite running speed at mid-range price in B. Busch's career intermediate pedigree at bargain price in C. Allmendinger and Suarez fill out D/E with strong value.
Race Format
The AdventHealth 400 runs 267 laps (400.5 miles) at the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway. Stage 1 ends at Lap 80, Stage 2 at Lap 160, with the final 107-lap run to the checkered. Green flag Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.