Denny Hamlin owns the strongest Texas track record in the field (3 wins, 12.5 avg). Carson Hocevar arrives one week removed from his first career Cup win at Talladega and rolls into a track where he won the pole as a rookie. Larson, Reddick, and Byron round out the chalk. Buescher and Keselowski are the model's biggest disagreement with DK pricing.
Sunday's Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY is the second of two NASCAR Cup Series stops at Texas Motor Speedway in 2026. The 1.5-mile high-banked tri-oval has produced five different winners in the last five years — Larson (2021), Reddick (2022), Byron (2023), Elliott (2024), Logano (2025 defending) — and any one of them could win again. Carson Hocevar shows up in the No. 77 Spectrum Chevrolet for Spire one week after his first career Cup win at Talladega; last spring he became the youngest pole sitter in track history.
The model loves the chalk at the top, but the meaningful disagreement with DraftKings pricing is in the $11-$13 FJ band — Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski both project as top-10 finishers but sit two tiers below their elite teammates in salary. That's where lineup leverage lives this week.
Race Details
| Race | Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY |
| Track | Texas Motor Speedway (1.5-mile, high-banked tri-oval) |
| Date | Sunday, May 3, 2026 — 3:30 PM ET |
| TV / Radio | FS1 / PRN / SiriusXM |
| Distance | 267 laps / 400 miles |
| Field | 38 cars (36 charters + 2 open: Heim/#67 23XI, Finchum/#66 Garage 66) |
Top Plays
Denny Hamlin (#11, $15 FJ / $11,000 DK / $14,000 FD) — The most decorated active Texas driver in the field: 3 Cup wins, 16 top-10s, 12.5 average finish. Model has him projected for a top-3 finish (45.5 fantasy points). Pricing aligns across all three platforms — top tier everywhere — but the dominator upside (laps led + stage points) is what justifies the $15 FJ tag. Lock him in cash; tournament-leverage him to A.
Kyle Larson (#5, $15 FJ / $10,500 DK / $13,500 FD) — 615 career laps led at Texas, won the 2021 race from pole. Projects a top-10 finish and 41.8 pts. The Hendrick #5 has been quietly excellent on intermediates this season; the only knock is he hasn't dominated Texas the way Hamlin has. Cash-game lock at $15.
Tyler Reddick (#45, $14 FJ / $10,700 DK / $13,000 FD) — Five wins in 2026 already, including the historic three-in-a-row to open the season (Daytona, Atlanta, COTA). One Texas win (2022) and three top-5s in seven starts. Model projects a top-5 finish (32.0 pts). The most "right" of the elite plays at $14 FJ — slightly under-priced relative to Hamlin/Larson with comparable upside.
Mid-Tier Targets (Where Leverage Lives)
Chris Buescher (#17, $11 FJ / $8,100 DK / $9,000 FD) — Model projects a top-10 finish. DK has him priced as a mid-tier ($8,100), but the model views him as a high-floor option. RFK Racing's intermediate-track package has been a top-5 outfit on speed; Buescher's average running position runs noticeably better than his finishes thanks to soft tires. At $11 FJ, he's a credible floor-per-dollar play.
Brad Keselowski (#6, $11 FJ / $8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) — Same RFK story as Buescher — projects a top-3 finish (39.3 pts) at $11 FJ. Veteran intermediate racer with two career Texas wins. The kind of mid-tier name that quietly returns 30+ fantasy points and frees salary cap for elite stacks.
Carson Hocevar (#77, $12 FJ / $8,500 DK / $10,500 FD) — The hottest name in NASCAR after Talladega. 8th in Cup standings, career highs in wins/top-5s/top-10s already, and at Texas specifically: youngest pole sitter in track history last season. Model projects a top-15 finish (26.2 pts). DK has bumped his price post-Talladega; FD lagged. The contrarian play if the chalk feels too obvious.
Christopher Bell (#20, $14 FJ / $10,000 DK / $12,500 FD) — Slightly under JGR teammate Hamlin in projection (top-10 finish, 35.0 pts). Same equipment, slightly better price ($14 FJ vs $15 DK $10,000). Comfortable Group A pivot away from the chalk.
Value & Punt Plays
Brad Keselowski (#6, $11 FJ / $8,000 DK) — Projected 39.3 pts (top-3 finish); 3.57 pts-per-FJ-dollar.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr (#47, $6 FJ / $5,500 DK) — Projected 19.0 pts (mid-pack finish); 3.17 pts-per-FJ-dollar.
Erik Jones (#43, $7 FJ / $6,300 DK) — Projected 22.0 pts (mid-pack finish); 3.14 pts-per-FJ-dollar.
Ryan Preece (#60, $10 FJ / $7,600 DK) — Projected 29.0 pts (top-15 finish); 2.90 pts-per-FJ-dollar.
Sub-$5 Punts
- Todd Gilliland #34 — $5: 20.0 projected pts (mid-pack finish)
- Shane van Gisbergen #97 — $4: 20.0 projected pts (mid-pack finish)
- John H. Nemechek #42 — $5: 18.0 projected pts (back-half finish)
Platform Tips
FantasyJolt ($50 cap, 5 drivers, A-E multipliers)
The chalk build is Hamlin (A) + Larson (B) + Reddick (C/D) — but at $15+$15+$14 = $44, that leaves only $6 across two slots. The smarter approach: pivot one elite to Christopher Bell or Tyler Reddick ($14) and free $$ for Chris Buescher ($11) at C, then build out with Brad Keselowski ($11) and a punt. Reference build: Denny Hamlin A / Tyler Reddick B / Chris Buescher C / Brad Keselowski D / Todd Gilliland E.
DraftKings ($50,000 cap, 6 drivers, no positions)
DK's biggest pricing miss vs the model is Buescher and Keselowski at $8,100/$8,000 — both project well above their tier. Stack them with one elite (Hamlin or Larson at $11K-tier) and pay down at the bottom for Cody Ware ($5,000 area). The Hocevar bump in DK pricing this week is fair given Talladega; he's a tournament play, not a cash-game lock.
FanDuel ($50,000 cap, 5 drivers, no positions)
FD's pricing skews toward favorites — Hamlin and Larson at $14K+ leave less room for value than DK. The leverage move is to fade one elite and play two mid-tier with positive place differential potential (drivers starting deep but projected to finish well). Watch starting-position projections — Hocevar's pole history makes him a unique FD play if he qualifies up front.
The Lock
Denny Hamlin. Three Texas wins, 16 top-10s, the field's best track-specific track record, and the model agrees — projecting a top-3 finish. He's chalk for a reason this week.
Green flag drops Sunday at 3:30 PM ET on FS1.