Jesse Love on pole, Austin Hill the +125 betting favorite, Jeb Burton the model's top FJ projection at 56.0 pts, and the Dash 4 Cash $100K bonus on the line. Inside: tier-based DraftKings value picks, optimal DK lineup with writeups, last 4 Talladega Cup-O'Reilly winners, and the keys to your $50 FantasyJolt build for the Ag-Pro 300.
The third Dash 4 Cash race of the 2026 O'Reilly Auto Parts Series season lands at the wildest track on the schedule Saturday afternoon. Taylor Gray, Sheldon Creed, Justin Allgaier, and Jesse Love qualified in. They'll be racing each other for a $100,000 bonus on top of the Ag-Pro 300 prize — across 113 laps of three-wide drafting at Talladega Superspeedway.
Qualifying Update — Love On Pole
Jesse Love put a Chevy on the pole at 182.313 mph, edging Sam Mayer ($12) by 0.042 in single-car qualifying. The top ten all rolled Chevrolets — a clean lockout that says something about how the Hendrick-engine package is fitting Talladega this weekend. Vegas reacted: Love is now +500 and Mayer drifted out to +1800.
The Dash 4 Cash field starts spread across the grid:
- P1 — Jesse Love (#2) — pole position is gravy on top of the bonus eligibility
- P5 — Sheldon Creed (#00) — best of the rest
- P11 — Justin Allgaier (#7) — mid-pack track position, classic Allgaier setup
- P26 — Taylor Gray (#54) — momentum from Kansas didn't carry to the qualifying lap; he'll be working from the back
Other notable starts: Cole Custer didn't enter; Brandon Jones ($10) starts P22 and Sam Mayer ($12) starts P2. At Talladega, starting position is a suggestion at best. Ryan Ellis ($5) qualified mid-pack on track-position alone — still a strong value play.
Gray's Hot Hand
Taylor Gray rolls into Talladega off the second O'Reilly Series win of his career — a tense, late-race holdoff over Sheldon Creed at Kansas last weekend. Gray ($8) is the trendy pick this week, but Talladega doesn't care about momentum. Half the favored Cup-down drivers slumming in the O'Reilly race will lead laps; only one gets the checkered.
The Cup-Driver Stack
Cole Custer didn't enter. That leaves Austin Hill ($15) and Justin Allgaier ($10) as the headline Cup-down options. Hill is the +125 betting favorite AND the model's #2 projection on the slate — rare alignment between odds and model that justifies the $15 anchor price. Allgaier dropped to $10 because both his Vegas odds (+800, drifted from +300) and his FJ projection (28.0 FJ, rank 22) tell the same story: the market and our model both see him as overpriced if he were higher.
The Cheap Plays
Talladega is the rare race where field-fillers are a real lineup option. Random drafting partners survive the wrecks; superspeedway fluke top-10s do happen.
Ryan Ellis ($5) returns with ZEROES Premium Beverages on the No. 02 for Young's Motorsports, fresh off a 6th-place run at Daytona — meaningful proof the package fits superspeedways. At $5 he's a fantastic value play.
J.J. Yeley ($3) makes a one-off start in the No. 5 Jobber Ford Mustang for Hettinger Racing. Veteran, knows the draft, won't crash himself out. He's not winning, but he could absolutely finish on the lead lap and outscore drivers double his salary.
Building Your $50 FantasyJolt Lineup
Salaries below reflect a fresh model run with the latest Vegas consensus (post-qualifying). Jesse Love and Austin Hill both anchor at $15 — the model's top two projections and the +125 / +500 betting favorites. Jeb Burton at $14 is a quietly enormous value: the model has him as the #1 FJ projection on the slate at 56.0 pts (more than Love).
- Anchors ($14–$15): Jesse Love ($15) and Austin Hill ($15) — pole-sitter and Vegas favorite, model #1 and #2. Jeb Burton ($14) — model's #1 projection at 56.0 FJ but priced like a mid-anchor. Sheldon Creed ($14), Corey Day ($14) round out the top tier.
- Mid-anchor ($12–$13): Brennan Poole ($13), Carson Kvapil ($13), Ryan Sieg ($13) — three top-10 projections in the affordable bracket. Rajah Caruth ($12), Sam Mayer ($12), Brent Crews ($12).
- Mid-tier value ($10–$11): Harrison Burton ($11), Anthony Alfredo ($11), Sammy Smith ($11), Parker Retzlaff ($10), Justin Allgaier ($10), Dean Thompson ($10) — survivors with real upside.
- Group E sleepers ($3–$8): Blaine Perkins ($9), Garrett Smithley ($9), Patrick Staropoli ($9), Tyler Ankrum ($8), David Starr ($8), Josh Bilicki ($7), Joey Gase ($6), Patrick Emerling ($6), Brennan Poole ($6), Mason Maggio ($5), Ryan Ellis ($5), Yeley ($3) all fit if you're stacking anchors.
Save your dollars. Talladega rewards survivors more than favorites.
Talladega Superspeedway By the Numbers (O'Reilly)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Length | 2.66 miles |
| Banking | 33° (turns) |
| Race distance | 113 laps / 300.58 miles |
| Stage breaks | Lap 30 / Lap 60 |
| O'Reilly races on file at Talladega | 40+ |
| Pole-sitter wins (last 4) | 1 |
| Top-5 starter wins (last 4) | 3 |
| Avg winning starting position (last 4) | P9.75 |
| Lead changes per race (typical) | 25–30 |
| Cautions per race (typical) | 5+ for 20+ laps |
The pole has converted exactly once in the last four Talladega O'Reilly races. The pattern is clear: front-row track position is nice, but the Big One sets the table.
Last 4 Talladega O'Reilly Winners
| Year | Race | Winner | Started |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ag-Pro 300 | Austin Hill | P2 |
| 2024 | United Rentals 250 | Sammy Smith | P27 |
| 2024 | Ag-Pro 300 | Jesse Love | P2 |
| 2023 | Ag-Pro 300 | Jeb Burton | P8 |
All four winners are entered Saturday: Hill ($15), Love ($15, on pole), Burton ($14), and Smith ($11) all return to a track they've already conquered. Three of the four started inside the top-10 — but Sammy Smith's win from P27 in the 2024 fall race is the cautionary tale: anyone surviving can win.
DraftKings Value Picks by Tier
Tier 1 — $9,500+ (anchor plays)
| Driver | DK | FJ Proj | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hill | $11,000 | 48.7 | P6 |
| Jesse Love | $10,500 | 50.6 | P1 |
| Justin Allgaier | $10,000 | 28.0 | P11 |
| Brent Crews | $9,700 | 23.0 | P18 |
| Sheldon Creed | $9,500 | 44.7 | P5 |
Best play: Hill at $11,000. The model's #2 projection (48.7 FJ) and the +125 betting favorite — when both signals agree, you pay the salary tax. Love at $10,500 is right behind at 50.6 FJ from the pole.
Tier 2 — $8,000–$9,400 (mid-anchors)
| Driver | DK | FJ Proj | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Smith | $9,200 | 29.0 | P13 |
| Carson Kvapil | $9,000 | 44.5 | P8 |
| Corey Day | $8,700 | 35.0 | P3 |
| Sam Mayer | $8,500 | 42.2 | P2 |
| Taylor Gray | $8,400 | 22.0 | P26 |
| Brandon Jones | $8,300 | 18.0 | P22 |
| Ryan Sieg | $8,200 | 42.3 | P12 |
| Jeb Burton | $8,000 | 56.0 | P24 |
Best play: Jeb Burton at $8,000. The model's #1 overall projection on the slate at 56.0 FJ — bigger than Love (50.6) or Hill (48.7) — at the bottom of Tier 2. A former Talladega O'Reilly winner (2023) starting P24 with position-differential upside. The single largest mispricing on the board.
Tier 3 — $6,500–$7,900 (mid-range fillers)
| Driver | DK | FJ Proj | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Retzlaff | $7,900 | 25.0 | P19 |
| William Sawalich | $7,800 | 14.0 | P16 |
| Rajah Caruth | $7,700 | 26.1 | P7 |
| Harrison Burton | $7,500 | 34.0 | P30 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $7,400 | 40.1 | P9 |
| Jeremy Clements | $7,200 | 4.0 | P15 |
| Tyler Ankrum | $7,100 | 19.0 | P33 |
| Dean Thompson | $6,900 | 34.0 | P17 |
| Patrick Staropoli | $6,800 | 12.0 | P14 |
| Austin Green | $6,700 | 3.0 | P31 |
| Brennan Poole | $6,500 | 34.1 | P34 |
Best plays: Alfredo ($7,400, 40.1) and Harrison Burton ($7,500, 34.0) — top-15 projections at sub-Tier-2 pricing. Brennan Poole ($6,500, 34.1) is the cheapest 34+ projection in the field and starts P34 (massive position-differential upside).
Long-Shot Values — Under $6,500
| Driver | DK | FJ Proj | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Sieg | $6,400 | 20.0 | P28 |
| Josh Williams | $6,300 | 6.0 | P4 |
| Patrick Emerling | $6,200 | 20.0 | P27 |
| Blaine Perkins | $6,100 | 36.0 | P23 |
| Josh Bilicki | $6,000 | 28.0 | P35 |
| Ryan Ellis | $5,900 | 13.0 | P21 |
| J.J. Yeley | $5,800 | 18.0 | P25 |
| Lavar Scott | $5,600 | 1.0 | P32 |
| David Starr | $5,500 | 19.0 | P20 |
| Garrett Smithley | $5,400 | 27.1 | P37 |
| Joey Gase | $5,300 | 11.0 | P29 |
| Mason Maggio | $5,200 | 14.0 | P10 |
| Dawson Cram | $5,100 | 1.0 | P38 |
| Natalie Decker | $5,000 | 2.0 | P36 |
Best plays: Blaine Perkins at $6,100 (36.0 FJ) is the bargain of the slate — anchor-tier projection at deep-value pricing. Smithley ($5,400, 27.1) and Bilicki ($6,000, 28.0) round out the top punt-plays.
Optimal DraftKings Lineup ($49,700 / $50,000)
| Slot | Driver | DK | FJ Proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | Jesse Love (#2) | $10,500 | 50.6 |
| Driver | Sheldon Creed (#00) | $9,500 | 44.7 |
| Driver | Ryan Sieg (#39) | $8,200 | 42.3 |
| Driver | Jeb Burton (#27) | $8,000 | 56.0 |
| Driver | Anthony Alfredo (#96) | $7,400 | 40.1 |
| Driver | Blaine Perkins (#31) | $6,100 | 36.0 |
Total projected: 269.7 FJ points · Salary used: $49,700 of $50,000
This build stacks four 40+ FJ projections (Love, Creed, Sieg, Burton) with Alfredo as the Tier-3 anchor and Perkins as the long-shot value. All six drivers project 36.0 FJ or higher — six top-10-capable cars in one $50K build is rare anywhere on the season.
The Picks, Explained
Jesse Love (#2) — Pole sitter, +500 second favorite, 50.6 FJ projection. Defending O'Reilly Talladega winner from 2024 and a Dash 4 Cash contender. The model's #2 projection and the most complete signal-stack of the day.
Sheldon Creed (#00) — 44.7 FJ projection at $9,500. Starts P5 on the front-row Chevy block, eligible for the $100,000 Dash 4 Cash bonus, and Whelen's #00 has been a top-10 fixture in 2026.
Ryan Sieg (#39) — 42.3 FJ projection at $8,200. Starts P12 in his family's #39 — Sieg has quietly built a superspeedway competence over multiple seasons that the salary doesn't yet reflect.
Jeb Burton (#27) — Former Talladega O'Reilly winner (2023). Starts P24, projects a slate-leading 56.0 FJ. At $8,000 he's the most valuable single driver on the board this weekend.
Anthony Alfredo (#96) — 40.1 FJ projection at $7,400. Starts P9 — a top-10 starter for under $7,500 with a 40-point ceiling is exactly the Tier-3 anchor this build needs.
Blaine Perkins (#31) — 36.0 FJ projection at $6,100. Starts P23. The model's strongest cap-saver — anchor-tier production at deep-value pricing.
What I'm Watching
The Dash 4 Cash quartet running the same lap. The Big One — and which lineup it spares. Whether Gray's hot hand survives the chaos, or whether a deeper-pocket veteran like Allgaier wins his first of 2026.